Week Ahead - Aug 3rd

The start of August will see the war between Iran and the US continue to uphold the uncertainty in global energy prices, and consequently, the inflation outlook. This is in tandem with volatility in the AI trade, to be updated with results from SpaceX and AMD. A busy week of economic data will be headlined by the US jobs report and other labor data in the JOLTS and ADP report. ISM PMIs, factory orders, and the trade balance will also be featured for updates on industry and tariffs. In Europe, industrial production among the largest Eurozone states will unveil the impact of higher power costs, while Germany will post its trade balance. PMI results and the trade balance are awaited in China. Meanwhile, Japan will release wage data, and industry surveys are due in Australia. Interest rate decisions will take place in Brazil and India. Elsewhere, OPEC+ members will convene and discuss oil output quotas for the year.
Andre Joaquim | andre.joaquim@tradingeconomics.com
7/31/2026 5:41:07 PM
Americas
The second-quarter earnings season remains in full swing, with results due from SpaceX, AMD, Berkshire Hathaway, Eli Lilly, Palantir, Caterpillar, McDonald's, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Merck, Walt Disney, Booking, Uber, Pfizer, and Shopify, among many others. The economic spotlight will fall on Friday's US employment report. The economy is expected to have added 91,000 jobs in July, up from 57,000 in June, while the unemployment rate is seen edging up to 4.3% and average hourly earnings growth are expected to remain steady at 0.3% month over month. A stronger-than-expected payrolls report could reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will resume raising interest rates at its September meeting to tackle still-elevated inflation. Earlier in the week, the ISM manufacturing and services PMIs are expected to signal another month of expansion. Investors will also monitor the JOLTS report, with job openings forecast to decline to 7.25 million in June from May's two-year high of 7.59 million, alongside the ADP employment report, June trade balance, factory orders, and second-quarter productivity and unit labor costs. Elsewhere, Canada will release employment, trade, and Ivey and S&P Global PMI data. Mexico will publish inflation, consumer confidence, and business sentiment figures, while its central bank is expected to announce its latest policy decision. Brazil will release industrial production and S&P Global PMIs, with the central bank is expected to hold its Selic rate unchanged. 

Washington DC, US

Europe
Germany's trade surplus is expected to narrow in June after reaching a three-month high in May. Industrial production is forecast to stall following two consecutive months of growth, while factory orders are expected to continue rising for a second month, albeit at a slower pace. Meanwhile, retail sales are projected to decline in June after rebounding in May. July PMI data are expected to show Spain's manufacturing sector returning to modest growth, while manufacturing activity in Italy and Switzerland is likely to expand at a faster pace. The services sectors in both Spain and Italy are also expected to strengthen further. Across the Eurozone, real retail sales are likely to have increased for a second consecutive month. Italy's retail sales are also expected to rise for a second month. In France, industrial production is projected to recover in June, marking growth in three of the past four months. Italy's industrial output is likewise expected to rebound, posting growth in four of the last five months. In Turkey, annual inflation is forecast to ease for a second consecutive month, falling to a four-month low of 31.8%. Turkey's trade balance will also be in focus. The UK economic calendar will be relatively light. The Lloyds House Price Index is expected to show house prices rising 0.2% month-on-month in July, matching June's increase. Other releases to watch include France's trade balance, labour market data from France and Spain, Switzerland's inflation, unemployment and consumer confidence figures, and Turkey's trade balance. On the corporate front, the earnings season continues with results from HSBC Holdings, BP, Novo Nordisk, Siemens Energy, Deutsche Telekom, and Allianz among the week's key releases.

Rome, Italy

Asia Pacific
In China, investors will focus on the private RatingDog Manufacturing and Services PMI surveys for July. Manufacturing activity is expected to expand at a slightly faster pace, while growth in the services sector is likely to moderate. Trade data will also be closely watched, with China's trade surplus forecast to narrow to $112.5 billion in July. Inflation figures are due later in the week. In Japan, attention will turn to June wage growth and household spending data, both expected to show stronger growth. Markets will also scrutinize the minutes of the Bank of Japan's June policy meeting after the central bank raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1% in June before leaving it unchanged in July. In India, the Reserve Bank of India is widely expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.25%, as policymakers weigh growth risks stemming from the Middle East conflict against persistent inflationary pressures. In Australia, investors will assess a broad range of economic indicators, including job advertisements, household spending, the Ai Group Industry Index, building permits, and trade data, with the trade deficit expected to narrow. Elsewhere in the region, trade figures are due from Vietnam, Indonesia, and Taiwan, while inflation data will be released in Vietnam, Indonesia, South Korea, the Philippines, Thailand, and Taiwan. Markets will also receive second-quarter GDP figures from Indonesia and the Philippines, along with New Zealand's second-quarter labor market report. Rounding out the week, July PMI surveys will be published for Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam, Hong Kong, and Singapore. On the earnings front, Mitsubishi, Toyota and Nintendo are due to report next week.

Chongqing, China