China - Herstellungs PMI

The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI edged up to a near three-year high of 51.8 in November 2019 from 51.7 in the previous month, beating market expectations of 51.4. Both output and new orders grew solidly, as new export orders saw the first back-to-back monthly rise for over a year-and-a-half, and buying activity rose the most since January 2018. Meanwhile, employment was broadly stable following a seven-month sequence of decline, but capacity pressures persisted, with backlogs of work expanding again. On the price front, average input costs rose marginally, while factory gate charges fell slightly amid reports of a general drop in market prices. Looking ahead, sentiment towards the 12-month outlook for production slipped to a five-month low, due to stricter environmental policies and market uncertainty.

The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI rose unexpectedly to 51.7 in October 2019 from 51.4 in September, beating market expectations of 51.0. The latest reading pointed to the strongest pace of expansion in the manufacturing sector since February 2017, as output grew the most since December 2016 and total new orders increased at the fastest rate in over six years boosted by a rebound in exports. In addition, companies increased their purchasing activity at the quickest pace for 20 months, leading to a further rise in stocks of inputs. Meanwhile, employment continued to fall due to the non-replacement of voluntary leavers and efforts to contain costs. On the price front, prices charged by manufacturers fell slightly due to competitive market pressures, while cost burdens rose slightly. Looking ahead, sentiment strengthened to its highest since April.

The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 51.4 in September 2019 from 50.4 in August and above market expectations of 50.2. The latest reading pointed to the strongest pace of expansion in the manufacturing sector since February 2018, as output grew the most in over a year and new orders increased at the fastest pace since March 2018 despite a further reduction in overseas sales. At the same time, employment was broadly unchanged for the second straight month, while backlogs of works went up at the steepest rate since early 2018. On the price front, input costs increased the most since November, mainly due to the fluctuations in exchange rates and mutual tariff hikes between China and the US. Meantime, output charges were broadly unchanged. Looking ahead, sentiment remained relatively weak as worries persisted over the outcome of the ongoing China-US trade negotiations.

The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4 in August 2019 from 49.9 in the previous month, beating market expectations of 49.8. The latest reading pointed to the strongest pace of expansion in the manufacturing sector since March, as production grew the most in five months and both employment and new order intakes were broadly stable, despite the fastest decline in export sales since last November. Also, buying activity increased slightly for the second month running, while stocks of finished goods rose for the first time this year. On the price front, input costs dropped the most since January 2016 on the back of widespread reports of reduced raw material prices, while output charges fell at the steepest rate since December 2015. Finally, business sentiment weakened to a level that was among the lowest in the series history, largely due to concerns over the ongoing China-US trade dispute and signs of a slowing global economy.

The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.9 in July 2019 from 49.4 in the previous month and compared to market expectations of 49.6, still pointing to a slight deterioration in business conditions. Output was little-changed following a decline in June amid a slight increase in overall new orders, while new export sales were flat. At the same time, buying levels rose slightly following a reduction in June. However, firms adopted a cautious approach to inventories in light of relatively soft demand conditions, with inputs of both purchased items and post-production goods falling. Meanwhile, employment dropped for the fourth month in a row and at the steepest rate since February. In terms of prices, input cost rose again; while output charges dropped for the first time since January, amid efforts to stimulate customer demand and boost new order intakes. Looking ahead, business confidence regarding output for the year ahead improved to a three-month high.

The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.4 in June 2019 from 50.2 in the previous month, missing market expectations of 50.0. The latest reading pointed to the first contraction in factory activity since February, as new orders, overseas sales and output all declined amid persistent trade dispute with the US. In addition, employment dropped further, with evidence suggesting that voluntary leavers had not been replaced. On the price front, input cost inflation hit its highest level in seven months, though the rate remained mild in the context of historical survey data. Similarly, there was a slight rise in factory gate charges, following no change in May. Looking ahead, confidence was broadly neutral, with some companies expecting the launch of new products and expansion plans to boost output in the year ahead, while others were concerned about the ongoing trade tensions.