Americas

Next week, the FOMC meeting minutes will be the main event, as investors look for signals on the interest rate path following the recent hotter-than-expected US CPI and PPI data. Corporate earnings will also take center stage, with Nvidia expected to surpass market expectations in its highly anticipated report. Other notable earnings include Walmart, The Home Depot, TJX, Intuit, Analog Devices, Lowe’s, and Deere. On the economic front, investors will focus on a series of housing-related indicators. Housing starts are expected to decline, while building permits are seen edging higher. Pending home sales are projected to rise a solid 1.6%, and the NAHB Housing Market Index is forecast to remain unchanged at 34. Also, the S&P Global flash PMI reading is expected to show continued growth in private sector activity in May, despite the impact of the US conflict with Iran. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, capital flows, and the final Michigan consumer sentiment reading will also be closely watched. Elsewhere in America, the economic calendar is lighter, with Canada’s April inflation rate, retail trade, and new housing prices in focus.

Nvidia Headquarters, Santa Clara, CA

In Germany, the GfK Consumer Climate Indicator is expected to fall for a fourth consecutive month, while the Ifo Business Climate Index is also forecast to decline for a third straight month to its weakest reading since May 2020. In the UK, investors will focus on key data including unemployment, inflation and retail sales. Annual inflation is expected to ease to 2.7% in April from a three-month high of 3.3%, while core inflation is also seen slowing to 2.7%. The unemployment rate is projected to remain steady at 4.9% in Q1, with total average weekly earnings holding at 3.8%. Flash PMI readings for the Euro Area, Germany, France and the UK will also be released, with manufacturing growth expected to soften slightly while the contraction in services activity may ease. Markets will also monitor final Euro Area inflation data, flash consumer sentiment and final German GDP figures. Other releases include trade balance data from the Euro Area, Italy and Spain, Germany’s PPI, UK GfK consumer confidence and CBI industrial trends orders, France’s business confidence, Switzerland’s Q1 GDP and industrial production, and Turkey’s consumer and business confidence indicators.

Berlin, Germany

In China, investors will closely monitor a broad set of economic data for fresh insight into the economy’s performance in April. Industrial production is expected to have risen 5.9% year-on-year, slightly above March’s 5.7%, while retail sales growth is also seen accelerating to 2%. By contrast, fixed-asset investment growth likely moderated. Investors will also focus on unemployment and house price data. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China is widely expected to keep its 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5%, respectively, marking a full year without any policy adjustment. In Japan, preliminary estimates are likely to show the economy expanded at an annualized rate of 1.7% in Q1, accelerating from 1.3% in Q4, as the full economic impact of the Iran conflict has yet to materialize. Trade data is also expected to show both exports and imports growing at a slower pace in April, while machinery orders likely contracted 8.1%. Flash PMI readings will provide an early snapshot of private-sector activity in May, with manufacturing growth expected to ease slightly. Inflation data will also be in focus, with the annual core inflation rate projected to slow to 1.7% from 1.8%. India and Australia are both scheduled to release flash manufacturing and services PMI readings for May. Australia will also publish consumer inflation expectations, consumer confidence, employment figures, with the unemployment rate expected to remain steady at 4.3%, and the minutes from the latest Reserve Bank of Australia meeting. Elsewhere in the region, Singapore, Malaysia, and New Zealand are due to release trade data, while Malaysia and Hong Kong will also publish inflation figures. Thailand is set to report GDP growth data, and Indonesia’s central bank will announce its latest monetary policy decision.

Abu Dhabi, UAE