Vereinigte Staaten von Amerika - NFIB Business-Optimismus-Index

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the US rose to 104.7 in November 2019 from 102.4 in October, beating market expectations of 102.8. It is the largest month-over-month gain since May 2018, led by a 10-point improvement in earnings. Earnings, or the frequency that owners report positive profit trends, rose 10 points, 1 point below the record set in May 2018. Also, owners reporting it is a good time to expand increased by 6 points and those expecting better business conditions increased by 3 points. On the other hand, the NFIB Uncertainty Index fell 6 points in November to 72, the lowest reading since May 2018. “Owners are most closely focused on issues that directly impact their business, including the real, significant tax relief they were given two years ago, and they’re anxious to see that relief made permanent”, said NFIB Chief Economist William Dunkelberg.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the US rose 0.6 points from the previous month to 102.4 in October 2019, but below market expectations of 103.5. Eight out of ten index components improved, as talk of a recession faded, supported by GDP-producing plans for job creation, inventory investment, and capital spending. Job creation exceeded that in September, as small businesses continued to hire and create new jobs. Capital spending went up and inventory investment rebounded from a modest negative level in the prior month. Rising labor compensation advanced and remained strong historically, and the frequency of plans to raise compensation also rose. Higher selling prices remained subdued, so rising labor costs are still not pushing up inflation on Main Street. The Uncertainty Index dropped 4 points, still remaining historically high heading into an election year.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the US fell 1.3 points from the previous month to 101.8 in September 2019, below market expectations of 104.1. Three index components were unchanged and six dropped. Still, the index remained at a historically strong level with continued job creation, capital spending, and inventory investment, all consistent with solid, but slower growth. Rising labor compensation remained historically strong and fewer firms reported higher selling prices, pointing that increasing labor costs are still not pushing up inflation. Credit market conditions remain among the most supportive in the 46-year survey history. The Uncertainty Index advanced 2 points, revisiting high levels of concern, suggesting that small business owners are more reluctant to make major spending commitments when the future becomes less certain.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 1.6 points from the previous month to 103.1 in August 2019, as fewer owners said they expect better business conditions and real sales volumes in the coming months. Still, job creation accelerated, positive earnings trends improved, and quarter-on-quarter sales gains remained strong. The Uncertainty Index rose 4 points, suggesting that small business owners are reluctant to make major spending commitments. The main impediment to more growth is the record level of no qualified workers.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the US rose 1.4 points from the previous month to 104.7 in July 2019, slightly below market consensus of 104.9. Expectations for better business conditions increased five points while those reporting the current period as a good time to expand advanced two points. The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes rose five points to a net 22 percent of owners. In addition, plans to create new jobs and make capital outlays advanced and earnings trends improved, supported by a solid improvement in sales trends. Reports of higher average selling prices stabilized, with no evidence of a pickup in inflation, after surging in June. Credit conditions remained very supportive, interest rates on loans were historically low, and there were few complaints about credit availability. The Uncertainty Index fell 10 points, reversing a surge in June that reached the highest level since March 2017.

The NFIB's Small Business Optimism Index in the US fell to 103.3 in June 2019 from 105 in the previous month. Six Index components dropped, three improved, and one was unchanged. Both capital spending plans and actual outlays declined, reversing last month’s gains. The inventory component strengthened as owners said existing inventory stocks were lean and planning to add to them. Sales and earnings trends weakened, while expected credit conditions remained strong and are projected to tighten. Uncertainty levels increased to the highest level since March 2017.