Ägypten - Herstellungs PMI

The IHS Markit Egypt PMI fell to 47.9 in November 2019 from 49.2 in a month earlier, pointing to the fourth straight month of decline and the lowest reading since September 2017. Output contracted for the fourth consecutive month, with the rate of decline strengthened to a solid pace; new orders dropped at a steeper rate; and new export orders shrank solidly despite new contracts with firms in Saudi Arabia, Greece, Morocco and other countries. In addition, employment decreased for the first time in four months, with backlogs went up for the eighth straight month. Meanwhile, purchasing activity grew for the first time since July. In terms of prices, input price inflation eased to one of the weakest rates on record, while selling charges fell at the steepest rate in series history. Looking ahead, confidence decreased slightly, falling below the average, but remained positive.

The IHS Markit Egypt PMI was at 49.2 in October 2019, down from 49.5 in the prior month, pointing to the third straight month of contraction in non-oil private sector. Output fell for the third month in a row, new orders dropped the most since May and foreign sales shrank again. In addition, buying level declined at the fastest rate since March, albeit only slightly. Meanwhile, firms expanded their workforce for the third month running. On the price front, input cost inflation dropped to the weakest since June as higher cost with salaries was offset by a slowdown in purchase prices. Also, output charge rose the least in four months as some companies offered discounts to drive up sales. Finally, sentiment strengthened from September's near three-year low, as firms were hopeful that future contracts would lead to a rebound in activity.

The IHS Markit Egypt PMI was at 49.5 in September 2019, up from 49.4 in the prior month, pointing to the second straight month of contraction in non-oil private sector activity. Output fell for the second month in a row, but at a softer rate, with new orders dropping further and purchasing activity being broadly unchanged. At the same time, export sales grew for the third month running, while employment growth was at 13-month high. On the price front, input cost inflation eased, while price discounting at some firms led to a weaker mark-up of selling charges. Finally, sentiment weakened to the lowest since October 2016.

The IHS Markit Egypt PMI dropped to 49.4 in August 2019 from 50.3 in the previous month. Output fell again following a slight expansion in July, with new orders declining a bit, amid weakness in domestic demand. Also, buying levels decreased after a solid expansion in July. Meanwhile, exports grew for the second month in a row amid improvements in the external market, as contracts from trading partners in the Middle East and other regions increased. At the same time, employment rose marginally, ending the previous three-month run of decline, while outstanding business advanced moderately. In terms of prices, input price inflation rose the most in ten months, amid a rise in fuel prices due to subsidy cuts in July. Consequently, selling prices went up solidly, and the most since August last year. Lastly, confidence improved to 1-1/2-year high.

The IHS Markit Egypt PMI increased to 50.3 in July 2019 from 49.2, signalling the first growth in non-oil private sector since April. Both output and new orders rose for the first time since April, boosted by the introduction of new export contracts. In fact, export sales rose for the first time since last August and at the sharpest pace for over a year-and-a-half, mostly from the Middle East, Africa and Europe. Meanwhile, employment continued to decline, though at a broadly similar pace to that seen in June. On the price front, overall cost inflation was the highest in nine months, mainly due to increased fuel charges after the government cut subsidies that were previously initiated through reform packages. This also caused firms to mark up their selling prices. Finally, sentiment improved from June’s five-month low, as more businesses displayed a positive outlook due to hopes of higher market activity and a fall in the value of the USD.

The Emirates NBD Egypt PMI increased to 49.2 in June 2019 from 48.2. This was the second straight month of contraction in non-oil private sector although at a softer pace, amid weaker falls in output, new orders and new export orders. Also, workforce numbers dropped marginally, easing from a solid decline in May; and firms cut back on buying activity, leading to a slight reduction in inventories. Regarding prices, input cost inflation slowed to the second-lowest since the series began in April 2011, while selling charges were unchanged following two successive months of slight drops. Finally, confidence dropped to a five-month low, with some businesses showing concerned about deteriorating exchange rates.